大连教育学院学报

教育是影响国家发展的重要因素，教育项目支出的预测也成为人们重点关注的话题。传统的单一预测方法的不足，使得对教育项目支出的预测精度与可靠性并不高。为了充分利用各单项方法的优点，将IOWHA算子与Theil不等系数相结合，建立新的预测模型。从理论推导的角度来看，组合模型优于单项模型是有效的。运用该组合预测模型以1998—2022年我国实际教育项目支出为研究样本，对我国“十五五”期间教育项目支出进行预测。结果表明，“十五五”期间我国教育项目支出将会进一步提高，年增长率基本稳定在6.7%左右，也表明我国的教育事业在蓬勃发展。

Education is an important factor affecting the development of the country, and the prediction of educational program expenditures has become a key concern. However, the shortcomings of the traditional single-item methods account to the lower prediction accuracy and reliability of the educational program expenditures. In order to make full use of the advantages of each single-item method, this paper combines the IOWHA operator with the Theil's inequality coefficients, and establishes a new prediction model. The constructed model, which is better than the single-item model, is effective from the point of view of theoretical derivation. In this paper, the combined prediction model is applied to predicting China's educational program expenditures during the 15th Five-Year Plan period with China's actual educational program expenditures from 1998 to 2022 as a research sample. The results show that China's educational program expenditure will further increase during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, and the annual growth rate is basically stabilized at about 6.7%, which also indicates that China's education is developing vigorously.